Welcome to the 91st episode of Harmonious Workplaces, a podcast dedicated to exploring, challenging, and building various organizational culture and change management concepts. Hosted by independent consultants Rich Cruz (RC) and Ben Kleinman (BK), the show offers a practical blend of theory and practice drawn from their professional experiences across various industries and company sizes. Having reviewed their 2025 predictions and finding themselves reasonably accurate predictors of the organizational development, Human Resources (HR), and Change Management (CM) industries, the hosts dive into their bold forecasts for US workplaces in 2026.
Strategic HR Challenges in 2026
The hosts presented several critical predictions concerning the state of Human Resources and its influence within corporate leadership, many of which involve missed opportunities.
The Strategy Seat Remains Empty
A key prediction agreed upon by both hosts is that HR will still not claim a seat at the strategy table in 2026, despite a recognized “golden opportunity” to do so. This continuation of HR being excluded from top-level strategy conversations leads the hosts to predict they will still be “shaking our heads in dismay” about what industry movers and shakers are missing.
The primary obstacle preventing HR from seizing this strategic role is the overwhelming volume of operational and tactical demands they face. RC suggests that HR departments are overloaded due to new laws going into effect. As an example, the discussion cited the day workers’ law in Illinois, which mandates that contracted workers must be treated like full-time employees after accumulating 720 hours at a single location—a period equivalent to about 18 weeks or four and a half months. Dealing with the complexity of ensuring compliance with such regulatory changes limits the bandwidth for strategic thought.
The Folly of the “Year of the Employee”
Following the failure to secure a strategic seat, the hosts predict that the widespread focus on employee wellness and psychological safety—the idea of 2026 being the “Year of the Employee”—will largely be “a lot of hot air”. While corporations will talk extensively about these concepts, nothing significant will change for people on the shop floor, those working in the field, or those “grinding away on their laptops”. Employees may receive “happier sounding emails” with brighter colors, but the practical change in benefits, wellness, or safety initiatives will be minimal.
This pessimistic view is supported by governmental funding trends, specifically cuts to federal workforce development programs. The Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act (WIOA) budget, for example, which focuses on making America skilled again, has seen significant reductions. The budget for this program (or similar programs) was $5.32 billion in 2021, fell to $4.75 billion in 2024, and is projected to be further reduced to $2.96 billion. These significant drops indicate that the government is not necessarily investing in a prepared workforce, sending a signal that many companies may also forgo investment in training and upskilling. The hosts note this creates cognitive dissonance, as the economy remains skills-based while higher education struggles and governmental training investment declines.
Predictions for Change Management and AI
The discussion shifted focus to the discipline of Change Management (CM), predicting operational advancements enabled by technology, even as the field’s core strategy remains stable.
Stagnant CM Strategy, Enhanced Precision
Strategically, CM is not expected to change drastically in 2026; no major shifts in established change models or organizational approaches are anticipated. However, while the strategic framework remains fixed, Artificial Intelligence (AI) will continue to enable greater precision in CM efforts. The use of AI in CM is expected to become “routine or baseline, like using the Internet”.
AI will particularly enhance communications and stakeholder engagement. Historically, messaging was tailored for broad groups (like departments or entire shop floors). With AI, practitioners can use tools to pick up on behavior patterns and individual preferences to determine the best communication strategy—focusing on what a specific person needs to hear, when, and how they prefer to receive it. RC shared an anecdote about using a tool like Copilot to refine communication strategies based on previous conversations and stated preferences. This precision-focused communication is vital, as improving communication and engagement are top search keywords for practitioners.
Business Model Shifts and Practitioner Support
Change management companies are expected to shift their business models to be more subscription-based. This move, exemplified by organizations like Prosci, favors continuous revenue models over traditional one-off engagements.
Furthermore, the hosts predict that CM practitioners will continue to be highly supportive of each other, constituting a “groundswell activity” rather than a top-down mandate. This community support involves sharing new and effective ways to operationalize change, including leveraging AI capabilities, neuroscientific learnings, and behavioral psychology to ease the transition for stakeholders. The need for CM is accelerating, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics projecting a 10-year growth rate of about 16% in net new jobs (from 2018 to 2028), assuming current trends continue. Ben Kleinman suggested that since 2026 will not be “the year of the employee,” perhaps it should be called “the year of the coworker,” reflecting this groundswell of mutual support.
Industry Organizations and Research
Missed Opportunities for Industry Leadership
HR and CM industry organizations are predicted to remain excellent for networking and supporting best practices (like conferences and building enthusiasm), but they will not significantly advance the discipline. The hosts do not anticipate groundbreaking research, new strategic frameworks, or anything that would dramatically shift the perspective of either profession, ultimately leading to another “missed opportunity” to elevate these fields. RC also notes that associations are often struggling to secure non-dues revenue because members can often acquire knowledge and network on their own.
AI as the Primary Research Focus
While industry organizations are predicted not to push the strategic frontier, academic researchers and consulting firms will heavily push research focused on AI’s impact on the workforce. Key areas of study will include:
- How people are adopting and adapting to AI.
- The impact of AI bias.
- How AI affects how people “show up at work”.
- The orchestration of AI agents, necessitating new management approaches (e.g., manager overseeing AI agents or AI managing other AI).
Research volatility is expected due to conflicting state and federal regulations regarding AI use. For example, new laws in Illinois and potentially California regulate the use of AI in HR, specifically for hiring. RC notes concerns about potential research bias, specifically harking (Hypothesizing After Results are Known), due to the momentum behind AI implementation. Overall, while much research will surface, the adaption phase—where policy changes are actually implemented—is likely to occur later, potentially in 2027.
The Hermit Crab Prediction
In a lighter prediction related to their published work, the hosts assert that Hermie (the HR Hermit Crab) will release another book (a third, equally colorful volume) and is expected to change his shell design more often.
View more insightful predictions and workplace discussions at www.harmoniousworkplaces.com/podcast
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